Forty-Two Per Cent in Both Houses

On Thursday 8 October, Italy’s Chamber of Deputies gave final approval to a new electoral law, by 227 votes to 164 in a secret ballot, ItaliaOggi reported. The Senate had already passed it, according to Al Jazeera, so Thursday’s vote completed its passage through parliament. Its supporters call it the Stabilicum and its critics the Melonellum, the Associated Press reported. The centre-left opposition called it a “scam law”, argued that it is unconstitutional, and has pledged to bring it before the Constitutional Court once it takes effect.

Giorgia Meloni’s government has presented the law as a route to stability in a political system that has often been run by fragile coalition governments. “Whoever wins the elections will have the numbers to govern,” the prime minister has said, as Al Jazeera quoted her. The device meant to deliver those numbers is a bonus of extra seats. It is conditional, and the condition has to be met twice.

A bonus paid in both chambers or in neither

According to ItaliaOggi’s account of the text, the list or coalition that wins the most votes for both the Chamber and the Senate receives 70 additional seats in the Chamber and 35 in the Senate. The bonus is not automatic. To receive it, the same list or coalition must exceed 42 per cent of the valid votes in the Chamber and in the Senate. If either condition fails, no bonus is awarded in either chamber, and the seats set aside for it are distributed proportionally like the rest.

ItaliaOggi gave the example that makes the rule concrete. A coalition that takes 42.5 per cent for the Chamber and 41.8 per cent for the Senate receives nothing: the threshold has to be crossed in both. To make sure the two halves of the test are measured on the same side, lists presented for the Chamber must declare their link to lists presented for the Senate, and the bonus can go only to the same list or coalition in both branches of parliament.

The bonus has a ceiling as well as a floor. The winning list or coalition cannot be given more than 220 seats in the Chamber, which is 55 per cent of its 400, or more than 113 in the Senate, 56.5 per cent of its 200, in each case leaving out the seats elected by Italians abroad.

What else the law changes

The law replaces the system in place since 2017, known as the Rosatellum, under which about 36 per cent of members of the 600-seat parliament are elected in constituencies where the candidate with the most votes wins and the rest by proportional representation, Al Jazeera reported. The AP described the replacement as a fully proportional system; ItaliaOggi said it eliminates almost all single-member constituencies. A single list needs 3 per cent of the vote to win seats and a coalition needs 10 per cent, and in each coalition the best-performing list that falls below the threshold is brought back in.

Voters get preferences back, with a limit. The head of each list is elected first if the list wins seats, and cannot receive preference votes. After that, a voter may mark up to three preferences for other candidates on the list, and if more than one is cast they must go to candidates of different sexes; otherwise the second and third are cancelled. ItaliaOggi reported that the law removes the existing rule that neither sex may account for more than 60 per cent of list leaders nationally, and that the opposition fears the change will reduce the number of women elected. The AP reported that some lawmakers inside the governing coalition have raised the same objection, along with complaints that the law will raise campaign costs for individual candidates.

Parties must name, in the programme they file, the person they intend to propose as prime minister, and every party in a coalition must name the same person. The name does not appear on the ballot, and it does not bind the President of the Republic, who under the Constitution remains the only one who appoints the prime minister. A list that does not make the designation risks being ruled inadmissible.

The law also makes it harder for new parties to stand. Those without representation in parliament will have to collect 6,000 to 7,000 signatures in each multi-member constituency, up from 1,500 to 2,000, and ItaliaOggi reported estimates that the total could reach about 400,000 signatures given the obligation to stand in at least half the constituencies. Parties that already form a parliamentary group, or a component of one, when the law takes effect need only the old number, and parties with a group at the start of the legislature, along with linguistic-minority parties that won a seat at the last election, are exempt. A separate article lets people who have worked or studied for at least nine months in a municipality in another region vote there rather than in the municipality where they are registered.

Who gets to 42

On current polling, nobody clearly does. Al Jazeera, citing Politico’s polling aggregator, put Meloni’s Brothers of Italy at 27 per cent and her partners the League and Forza Italia at 12 per cent combined, for a coalition total of 39 per cent. On the same aggregator the Democratic Party stood at 21 per cent, the Five Star Movement at 12 and the Alliance of Greens and Left at 6, which by this publication’s arithmetic also sums to 39. National Future, the new far-right party led by the former general Roberto Vannacci, had 7.8 per cent with the pollster SWG.

That is why the law has opponents inside the governing coalition as well as outside it. According to the AP, some of its lawmakers fear it could backfire if National Future draws votes away from the governing bloc and makes the 42 per cent threshold harder to reach.

Vincenzo Emanuele, a political scientist at Luiss Guido Carli University in Rome and a member of the Italian Center for Electoral Studies, told Al Jazeera what happens if nobody clears the bar in both chambers. “This could produce a hung parliament, making post-electoral negotiations necessary to form a government,” he said. He added that simulations by the centre had shown a centre-left coalition including the Democrats and the Five Star Movement could reach 44 per cent of the vote, though that could change if Meloni allies with National Future. “The reform does not inherently favour the incumbent government: Its effects will depend crucially on how the competing coalitions are formed,” Emanuele said.

How it passed, and what comes next

The bill did not have an easy passage. In July, ItaliaOggi reported, an amendment reintroducing preferences was defeated in a secret ballot. To avoid further divisions in the majority, the government made three articles a matter of confidence, which means a roll-call vote and no amendments. The AP reported that Meloni had made the vote a test of coalition unity, warning lawmakers from her own party and its partners that the government could face a crisis if the reform were defeated. It is her latest attempt to reshape Italy’s institutions after voters rejected her overhaul of the justice system in a constitutional referendum earlier this year.

The next general election must be held by 22 December 2027, Al Jazeera reported, though the government can call it earlier. Before then the law may face the Constitutional Court. Critics contend, the AP reported, that a majority prize of this kind distorts representation and could conflict with earlier court rulings that struck down parts of previous electoral laws, and a successful challenge could force the government to revise the system before the vote. Meloni, for her part, hailed the reform as a step toward greater voter choice. “Italians would be able to vote for a party, coalition, governing program, prime ministerial candidate and, once again, their own lawmakers,” she said, in the AP’s rendering.

Sources

The vote count, the secret ballot, the mechanics of the bonus and its caps, the 42.5 and 41.8 per cent example, the thresholds, the preference and list-leader rules, the prime-ministerial designation, the signature requirements, the out-of-region voting article and the July amendment and confidence votes are as ItaliaOggi reported them on 8 October; translations from it are this publication’s. The Senate’s earlier approval, the description of the Rosatellum, the polling figures, the election deadline and the remarks by Meloni and Vincenzo Emanuele are from Al Jazeera. The law’s nicknames, the opposition’s planned court challenge, the objections within the coalition, the description of National Future as Roberto Vannacci’s party, the referendum and Meloni’s statement hailing the reform are from the Associated Press. The sum of the opposition parties’ polling is this publication’s calculation from Al Jazeera’s figures. The text of the law was not read directly.