Israel’s Basic Law Gives Coalition Builders at Most 42 Days to Find 61 Seats After the Election

Israel votes on Tuesday 27 October, and under Basic Law: The Government whoever is then asked to form a coalition gets 28 days, extendable by up to 14: at most 42 days for the first attempt.

The limit matters because the arithmetic may not settle quickly. Most polls show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and its partners losing their majority, the Guardian reported on Monday, while the opposition majority is split between Jewish Israeli parties led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel. The Jewish Israeli parties have mostly ruled out a coalition with the Arab parties, and some Palestinian politicians have indicated they might support a minority government from outside it. The Knesset has 120 seats; 61 is a majority, and no single party has ever won one.

What happens on election night?

Exit polls, then a long count. The Guardian reports that exit polls are released at 10 p.m. Israel time and that the outcome may turn on two small parties polling near the 3.25 per cent threshold, Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael and The Reservists, each of which would take four seats if it crosses it. Leftover seats are shared out under the surplus-vote agreements the parties had to file this month, and the ballot itself was settled only after the Supreme Court restored the two main Arab lists the election committee had barred.

The official result comes later. The Jewish Virtual Library’s election timeline, drawn from a 2018 Haaretz report, puts the announcement of official results eight days after the vote. That is what happened last time: the Central Elections Committee delivered the certified results of the 1 November 2022 election to President Isaac Herzog on 9 November, JNS reported.

Who gets the first try?

Whichever member of the Knesset the President chooses after consulting every party. Section 7 of the Basic Law, in the 2001 English translation published by the Jewish Virtual Library, requires the President to consult representatives of the party groups and assign the task to a member who has agreed to take it, “within seven days of the publication of the election results.” The Guardian describes the practice as an invitation to the party with the most seats; the text itself names no party, only a member who accepts. In practice the consultations are a count of recommendations: in 2022, Netanyahu had the backing of 64 members before Herzog gave him the task on 13 November.

Section 8 gives that member “a period of 28 days” and lets the President extend it by periods totalling no more than 14 days. In 2022 Herzog extended Netanyahu’s deadline to 21 December; Netanyahu told him that day that he had formed a coalition, and the government was sworn in on 29 December, according to Wikipedia’s account of the formation, which this publication has not checked against the President’s office. That was 58 days from the vote, by this publication’s count, with a majority that was clear on election night.

What if the first nominee fails?

The clock starts again, then shortens. Under Section 9, if the time runs out, the nominee says he cannot form a government, or the Knesset rejects his government, the President may give the task to another member, who has 28 days, or tell the Speaker that no government can be formed. Section 10 then allows a majority of the Knesset to ask in writing, within 21 days, for a named member; the President must assign the task within two days, and that member has 14 days. If that fails too, Section 11 treats it as a decision of the Knesset to disperse, and a new election is held on the last Tuesday before 90 days have passed.

The table below is this publication’s arithmetic. It assumes the results are certified eight days after the vote, as in 2022; that the second nominee is named three days after the first deadline, the period the translation gives the President; and that every other step uses its full period with no gap between them. It assumes no extension for the second nominee, because the translation this publication relied on does not provide one.

What do the deadlines not decide?

Who governs in the meantime. Section 30 provides that “the outgoing Government shall continue to carry out its functions until the new Government is constituted,” so every week on the calendar is a week in which Netanyahu remains prime minister. The deadlines also say nothing about a minority government: under Section 13 a government is constituted when the Knesset expresses confidence in it, whether its majority sits inside the coalition or votes for it from outside. Sweden, where a prime minister is confirmed unless a majority votes against, makes that kind of arrangement easier; Israel requires the vote of confidence itself.

This publication could not load the Knesset’s own English text of the Basic Law and relies on the 2001 translation; later amendments may have changed details not discussed here. Tuesday decides the seats. The Basic Law decides how long the parties may spend counting them again.