The Question Is Whether to Ask Again

Albertans go to the polls on 19 October, and the ballot is less than a vote to leave. Question 10 asks whether Alberta should “remain a province of Canada” or whether the provincial government should “commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada,” according to Elections Alberta, which says the order in council setting the question makes its result not binding. Nine other questions, five on immigration and four on the Constitution, share the ballot, according to CBC News.

What the premier committed to

Premier Danielle Smith told CBC on Friday that she would not hold another separation referendum if a majority votes to remain. “Not as long as I’m premier,” she said. CBC noted that this conflicts with the position of separatist leaders, many of whom say they will not give up if the vote goes against them. Smith said she is “public enemy number one” for that group and is not in contact with its leaders.

Her stated threshold for the separation question is 50 per cent plus one. For the other nine questions she was less specific. On Thursday she was not clear about a threshold for them; asked again on Friday, she said “majority rule” seems to be how most decisions are made and that if the questions are rejected, “I guess we’ll have to pursue other things.” Smith said she has spent recent months working to persuade more people to vote to remain.

Where the polls are

A Leger poll published on 8 October found 70 per cent of Albertans saying the province should remain in Canada, up from 65 per cent in August, with 22 per cent favouring beginning the legal process and 7 per cent undecided. Leger found 77 per cent rating their likelihood of voting at eight or higher out of ten, up from 68 per cent. A recent poll done for CBC News put the figures at 72 per cent to remain and 23 per cent to start the process.

The split inside Smith’s own party is wider. Leger found United Conservative voters at 43 per cent for remaining and 48 per cent for beginning the legal process, while 98 per cent of NDP voters favoured remaining. Polling cited by CBC showed 53 per cent of UCP voters choosing the separation option and 40 per cent choosing to stay. The surveys are not directly comparable: Leger’s was an online poll of 1,001 Albertans conducted from 2 to 4 October, and CBC’s report does not give the details of the polling it cites. Andrew Enns of Leger told the Calgary Herald he was surprised that remain supporters appeared more motivated to vote than separation supporters.

How the question got on the ballot

The Canadian Press timeline shows two routes. A citizen petition led by Mitch Sylvestre of the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project was approved for launch by election officials in January and later deemed successful, with about 223,000 signatures. On 13 May a judge of the Court of King’s Bench quashed it, ruling the government had not properly consulted First Nations; CBC reported that the government and Sylvestre are appealing. On 21 May Smith added her own question to the ballot, saying the legal uncertainty over the petition left thousands of Albertans without a say. CBC reported that the judge, Justice Shaina Leonard, also ruled that separation would violate First Nations treaty rights.

Meanwhile, a rival petition, Thomas Lukaszuk’s “Forever Canadian,” collected more than 400,000 names to affirm that Alberta stays, but by spring it was tied up in a legislature committee, the Canadian Press said.

The price and the politics

A report the government commissioned from the University of Calgary estimated an initial five-year cost of an independent Alberta of $50 billion to $170 billion, noting that the figures could swing sharply on factors outside the province’s control, the Canadian Press reported. Smith’s party lost a byelection to the NDP in Calgary-Shaw on 14 September; critics said the referendum was a factor, while her office attributed the loss to a split in the right-of-centre vote. CBC reported that a UCP caucus member, Jason Stephan, said at a town hall that he voted for the separation option, and that a southern Alberta riding association has urged a party vote to review Smith’s leadership.

The result will settle one thing and leave the rest. A decisive “remain” vote would answer the question put to voters. It would not say what the other nine results mean, since Smith has not said what share of the vote would count as a mandate, and it would not bind the separatists, who have said they will continue.

Sources

The wording and non-binding status of Question 10 are from Elections Alberta. The count of questions, Smith’s “Not as long as I’m premier” and “majority rule” remarks, the CBC poll figures, the UCP split in that poll, the Stephan and riding association items, and the Leonard ruling are from CBC News. The timeline, the petitions, the Calgary-Shaw byelection and the University of Calgary estimate are from the Canadian Press. The Leger figures and methodology are from Leger; Enns’s remark is from the Calgary Herald. The sentence on what the result will and will not settle is this publication’s assessment.