Pentagon Puts Iran War Cost at $47.1 Billion, Leaving Out the Damage to US Bases

The war with Iran had cost the US military an estimated $47.1 billion by 16 October, according to figures the Pentagon gave Congress, compiled by US Central Command (CENTCOM). That is $3.5 billion more than its estimate in early September, the Associated Press reported on Wednesday 28 October.

The estimate has not been published. The AP and CBS News reported the same total and the same three components: about $29 billion to replace munitions, about $11.9 billion in operating costs and about $6 billion (CBS gives $6.1 billion) for lost equipment. Both say what it leaves out: the damage that Iranian missiles and drones did to US bases in the Middle East. The war began at the end of February. Its cost so far is a number the Pentagon reports to committees; what the department will be paid back for it is a separate question that Congress has not yet answered.

What does the $47.1 billion include?

Munitions, mostly. On this publication’s arithmetic, the $29 billion for replacing munitions is about 62 per cent of the total. The AP said the most sought-after items are defensive interceptors such as Patriot and THAAD missiles. By service, it reported $7.6 billion for the Air Force, more than $2 billion for the Army and $1.45 billion for the Navy, down from $2.2 billion in early September; the Navy and CENTCOM referred questions about that reduction to the Pentagon, which did not respond. CBS said the Pentagon did not comment to it either.

The Pentagon’s inspector general said last month that the munitions spent had left the United States facing “strategic inventory shortfalls,” CBS reported. The administration disputes that there is a shortage. This publication has written before about why a stockpile is a bet on a timeline: a figure for replacing munitions is also a figure for how long replacement takes.

What does it leave out?

The bases, and anything after 16 October. The AP cited an inspector general report released last month that found Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of buildings and structures at US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan. None of that repair bill is in the $47.1 billion. In September the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Congress’s nonpartisan scorekeeper, also left out attacks on US installations, as well as the cost of borrowing to finance the war, according to Reuters’ account of its report. The CBO estimate also noted that the department had not cooperated with congressional financial auditors.

How fast is the figure rising?

Faster than the CBO projected, if the two figures are comparable, which they may not be. The table sets out every estimate the reporting attributes to an official body. The arithmetic below it is this publication’s.

Between the CBO’s cut-off of 1 August and CENTCOM’s of 16 October, a span of 76 days, the total rose by about $9.1 billion. That is roughly $3.6 billion a month. The CBO had projected $2 billion to $3 billion a month for as long as the war continues, CBS reported. The two estimates were not built by the same office or to the same scope, so the comparison shows direction rather than a precise rate. Averaged over the whole war, from 28 February to 16 October, the CENTCOM figure is about $205 million a day.

Who has to approve the money?

Congress, and it has not. The administration asked earlier this year for supplemental military funding, partly because of the war, and the request has not passed, CBS reported. The figures attached to it have moved: in September Mr Hegseth sought nearly $90 billion in emergency funding to restock munitions, Reuters reported, while the AP said on Wednesday that the White House is asking for a $95 billion package that would help fund the war and other priorities. Separately, Senate Democrats’ attempts to end the war by legislation have failed, the AP reported; this publication followed one of them in A House Resolution Waiting on the Senate.

How the department has covered the cost while the request waits has not been reported, and the estimate itself has not been released. Democrats have pressed Mr Hegseth for a more detailed accounting, CBS reported.

The Pentagon’s official count is 21 service members killed, including deaths from medical events, and 865 wounded, the AP reported. Eighteen of the deaths it attributed to Iranian strikes, aircraft crashes or the disposal of Iranian drones. Those figures are not in the $47.1 billion either.